BJP losing its ideological constituency as Maya sweeps UP

As the 2007 UP election results poured , it was evident by the noon of 11 May that Ms Mayawati and her BSP were all set to form the government in Lucknow . I am not a Mayawati supporter and hence there was nothing much for me to feel chirpy about and more so with the BJP being decimated

I am a BJP supporter and I pride myself of being a member of what the party calls the core ideological constituency-“the upper caste, right wing, educated Hindu”. The reason of the party’s attractiveness during the mid eighties to the early nineties was the clearly defined and sharply distinct right wing, pro majority, anti-appeasement agenda. The politics of BJP is based on solid ideological moorings, and like the Left parties over the years build a support base and a dedicated cadre which would stand by it in good times and in bad . The Ram Janambhoomi agitation catapulted the BJP into a position of power in UP and subsequently to central politics. In this process , its ideological constituency expanded manifold from the traditional Chitpawan Brahmin RSS support base to the broader section of Hindu’s .Prominent leaders like Kalyan Singh ensured that the OBC’s were firmly behind the party . BJP managed to create a solid social base amongst Hindu’s of all castes and therefore the setting was perfect for it to consolidate its position and deliver a pan India agenda (both economic and political). However, the myopia of the party’s leadership coupled with the complex caste dynamics of Indian politics has reduced the party into a spent force in UP within a decade

In the following paragraphs, I attempt to analyze the steady decline of the BJP and to me the most critical reason for it is:

Mis-management of political growth and dilution of the core ideology

The party suddenly tasted power in 1989 after being a marginal political force for many years (remember 2 MP’s in the 1984 Lok Sabha ….Rajmata and Pramod Mahajan). The inability of the party to manage the growth through a structured process lead to opportunity seekers joining the party in hoards, while these elements were required for the party to scale up politically, it also started the process of dilution of its core ideology. People who could deliver results at any cost rose to positions of power within the party hierarchy and the flag bearers of its core ideology were gradually marginalized. People like K Govindacharya and Jay Dubashi were no longer relevant in the new scheme of things .The dilution of its ideology made short term growth easier, but had far reaching consequences which the party has not recognized till date ….

a) Its inability to deliver on the Hindutva agenda lead to an erosion of its support base , people who were attracted by its pro-majority stand were soon disillusioned . When I asked this question to a certain section of the leadership within the party , I was told that to remain in power one has to make compromises ……but the cost of the compromise was the steady decline of the support base ……alas the party think tank continues to think differently

b) The party with a difference suddenly looked no-different, it had the same political gene pool (read the Congress...) which was the malaise of our society, it was the same wine in a different bottle ….

c) The party used the same tactics to remain in power and often resorted to improper means to stay in power , it had lost its moral authority over its political rivals , a consequence of not sticking to its ideology

d) Elected representatives of the party were charged of cases of corruption, brand lotus had not been able to deliver a clean administration.

The BJP has faced the nadir of its political achievements in UP in the last 2 decades , lets try and understand what really happened and is BJP going the Congress way in the UP

The 2007 UP Elections and the decline of the BJP

This elections saw the worst ever performance since 1991 , the BJP managed to garner 50 seats (down by 43) since last time , with its vote share falling 4% which one would imagine was transferred to the BSP ( vote share increase by 7%). Initial analysis says that Mayawati was able to successfully create a grand caste alliance of Hindu’s, though its Sarva Samaj Abhiyan – an all inclusive caste coalition. Mayawati was able to sell the concept of an inclusive society "Sarva Samaj" as against her traditional vote bank the "Bhaujan Samaj" . The process of building this coalition started a couple of years ago with her deliberate strategy of wooing Brahmins and other upper caste Hindus, to the extent that she gave more than 100 tickets to Brahmin candidates .The BSP caste coalition was so compelling and well designed that the party was able to get solid electoral support from all the Hindu castes and the thereby completely erode the core constituency of the BJP. The BJP Chief Ministerial candidate Kalyan Singh - the iconic OBC warrior in the Ram Janambhoomi agitation was not able to stem the migration of OBC votes from the BJP to the BSP. East UP with a Brahmin population of 20% , an area which has been a traditional stronghold of the BJP has voted overwhelming for the BSP. Rohilkhand and the Doab (Muslim majority areas) which are traditional vote banks of the Samajwadi Party have seen a huge migration of votes towards the BSP, so its safe to assume that the Sarva Samaj Abhiyan also include Muslims …..making it a deadly combination

In Conclusion

Still pretty much a BJP supporter and hopefully one for many more years , I am pained with the developments in the party and I hope that the party will go back to the drawing board and build the cadre from ground zero , rather than being bothered about short term gains . Advanji /Rajnath ji are you listening …….??